Slumdog Millionaire will win the Academy Award for Best Picture. But what about the acting categories? Months ago, I championed two big performances in small movies. I was thrilled to see Melissa Leo nominated for Frozen River and Richard Jenkins honored for The Visitor. Both films are modest in scope but grand in their execution. They put a human face on the immigration issue, exploring lives on the margins, at the edges of the American dream. For independent films, it is a victory just to be nominated. So who will win the Oscar?

Best actor has become a two horse race: Harvey Milk vs. Randy the Ram. The Screen Actors Guild honored Sean Penn for his compassionate portrait of San Francisco supervisor, Harvey Milk. Mickey Rourke gave a poignant acceptance speech at the Golden Globes for his bruised and broken down role as The Wrestler. Both Oscar campaigns are fueled by the connections between reel life and real life.