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How Many Youth are Leaving the Church?

If you discovered about half of the students in your church's youth ministry were going to walk away from Christ after entering college, would you do something about it?  I hope so.  That's not a very good retention rate. 

But what percentage of Christian youth are actually leaving the church?  There’s been some debate about the actual number, with some saying as little as 4% will remain Christian, while others suggest there’s virtually no exodus.  Christian Smith tells us that evangelicals have been "behaving badly with statistics" and quickly dispenses with the 4% "panic-attack" stats.   But can we get some idea of the percentage of youth leaving the church without being irresponsible with numbers? 

These are the most recent and most cited studies that I could find:

The LifeWay and Barna studies include research details.  I’m no sociologist but from what I can tell, their methodology seems sounds. 

Here are some related studies: 

  • "Spirituality in Higher Education":  The Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA found that 52% of college students reported frequent church attendance the year before they entered college but only 29% continued frequent church attendance by their junior year. 
  • College Transition Project:  The Fuller Youth Institute's current data seems "to suggest that about 40-50% of students in youth groups struggle in their faith after graduation."
  • "The Religiosity Cycle":  A 2002 Gallup Poll study found that church attendance “drops during the teen and young adult years.”

Conclusion:  It's safe to conclude the church is losing a signficant portion of its young people for some period of time.  Even if we take Barna's lower numbers and then cut 10% off to be extra conservative, we're still talking about losing half of our young people.

Is that acceptable?  And if not, why are we losing them and what needs to be done? 

Comments

is it because the church has little offer?

when life gets tough, when the rubber hits the road..often times post high school...the church seems like a social club.

the church is unwilling to:
talk about sex
talk about homosexuality
talk about divorce
talk about porn
talk about war/peace (except from one side)

when that is what the kids are being bombarded with and dealing with.

why stick around when out of touch pastors and preaching about tithing when Mom is an alcholic and Dads got a girl on the side.

why go when honest comments are not heard?

what church could a kid walk into a say " I MIGHT BE GAY." or "I LOVE PORN"
or "MY DAD BEATS ME" or "I GET HIGH, IN FACT I DID JUST BEFORE I CAME" with out derision and shame?

The church is not providing help, so let them leave.
maybe they can find God outside of buildings and people that push them away.

maybe one is sitting next to me in the coffee shop, a place of God.

I totally get it, Jake. Even so, I also know of dozens of churches that are the kind of honest, gritty places that would embrace the kind of kids you mentioned.

It's kind of like relationships: if you meet a couple of losers, you think the entire gene pool is tainted. But thank God not all churches are stunted and out of touch. Since Jesus transcends church flaws, I'm convinced he can reach people wherever they are, despite the hypocrisy of his self-proclaimed spokesmen.

I love that on this website alone, the communicators here are nuanced, committed Christians talking freely about the very topics you mentioned, and most of us belong to healthy churches who are reaching people with an unchanging message of hope. Thanks for the good reminder to love.

When we look at all the sins and tragedies in the world, it's easy to blame the church for lack of teaching and guidance over the youths' spiritual lives. But we need to remember that the parents need to be just as involved in their lives as the Church.

Plus, with the busyness of kids today, church usually takes a back seat, not because the church doesn't have enough going on, mind you. Some I've butted heads with are:
1) Schools give out grades, churches don't/can't, and students have grown up learning that grades take front seat to their future, or if it doesn't grade, it can't be that important.
2) After-school events (sports, clubs, etc.) promote the chance of getting a scholarship for college...attending an after-school Bible study doesn't.

And so one of the main struggles of the church is convincing youth (and parents) though these may be good for their kids' future careers and educations, such is just temporary, and their realationship with Jesus is what's most important.

Example: I used to teach martial arts. A father signed up his ADHD son, hoping we'll pound some discipline into him. But he only brought him by for 1 hour, once a week (and he sometimes missed a week), even though there were classes all week long. And his lack of advancement showed that he also didn't practice at home anything that he'd learned in class. One day, the father invited me over to the house. While there, his son was a terror! He'd hit his younger sister, throw things, write on the walls, etc., and his only means of discipline was a calm-sounding, "Son, please don't do that," or "son, I wish you wouldn't do that." So then a few months down the line, the father complains to me about how disappointed he is that though his son's taking classes there, he wasn't becoming better behaved.

Do you see the problem here? In the same manner, youth come to church for youth events maybe 1-2 times a week, even if the church has something for them all week. In fact, I've experienced parents becoming upset with their kids for spending too much time at the church (seriously!). So in the same manner, if the parents aren't participating in their youths' spiritual lives, and the youths aren't disciplining themselves spiritually (praying, reading the Bible, journaling, behavior, etc.) then the only time they're getting a dose of God is when they're at church, which we already established was rarely being visited.

And I believe that's one of the points of this blog: youth are not digging their roots down into the good soil, but instead falling along the path, thorns, and rocky ground. So when they get to college, some get trampled on and eaten by birds, some stray from the Living Water and thus dry up, and some get choked by the weeds and thorns growing around them. And the shame being pointed out is not only the minimal number of those who actually fell among the good soil, dug their roots deep, and produced a hundredfold of fruit, but the fact that the numbers of plentiful crops continue to fall.

And the point of this parable isn't that the Church (or God) didn't do their job, but how those who received the Word responded to it or held onto it in the face of (in relation to this blog) trials, new experiences, and temptations in the world, which is also the point I'm getting from the blog (and many others like it).

In my 30+ year relationship with God I have seen way too many young people walk away from the church and put their relationship with God on the shelf. Way too little find their way back. It is time we stop the bleeding. It is my experience that most people (young and old) walk away from church because of 1) being hurt by someone in the church, 2) hanging around the wrong crowd. There are other reasons but these the two main reasons in my observation.

It is true church is not a building. In fact going to church will make you a Christian about as much as going to McDonald's will make you a hamburger. Don't get me wrong it is VERY important. There is a reason the Bible says in Hebrews 10 to "forsake not the assembling of yourselves together".

Why do we as "The Army Of God" insist on killing our wounded and creating more casualties? I have seen way too many people over the years walk away from church because someone said something careless or even hurtful. It is time for us to get the heart and mind of Jesus and "Live a life of love." (Ephesians 5:2) Sometimes it only takes keeping your mouth shut even if you have to bite your lip and swallow your pride. That includes our children. There is a reason the Bible says not to embitter our children (Colossians 4:21).

“If you then, though you are evil, know how to give good gifts to your children, how much more will your Father in heaven give the Holy Spirit to those who ask him!”- Luke 11:13

Brett raises an interesting question. What is an acceptable attrition rate? Do you think that God settled upon an acceptable figure for the number of souls that would be tormented in hell for all of eternity, due in part to youth pastors dropping the ball?

These statistics are understandable ... All I have to do is look on facebook to see all of my once 'Christian highschool school buds', deep into alcohol, drugs and sexual promiscuity.

hmmmm...And I believe that's one of the points of this blog: youth are not digging their roots down into the good soil, but instead falling along the path, thorns, and rocky ground. peeling skin So when they get to college, some get trampled on and eaten by birds, some stray from the Living Water and thus dry up, and some get choked by the weeds and thorns growing around them. skin pores And the shame being pointed out is not only the minimal number of those who actually fell among the good soil, dug their roots deep, and produced a hundredfold of fruit, orange skin but the fact that the numbers of plentiful crops continue to fall.

Have no fear...God is working on this problem. It is very unlike me to comment on a post like this one. However, a friend of mine and I are working on creating a non-profit that will be addressing this very problem. This article is very well researched and well written. Thank you for the well written article. This is exactly the data we have been searching for to help with the creations.

Someone has described the typical youth group in the US as "holding tanks with pizza." There's nothing wrong with fun, but at some point we need to get serious and deal with complex questions. Many youth groups have food fights after the football game, go to camp in the summer, then send them off to college. Once at college, two things happen: 1) there's no old folks around to get them to church, plus a lot of sex, drugs, and fun tempting them every day, and 2) they get hit with questions from every direction: atheist professors, student clubs that have the muslim society, the buddhists, the Ayn Rand student group, and hundred others.
Our group is trying to do what we can to specifically contradict this. See Ratio Christi on the web: www.ratiochristi.org.

Thanks for putting together this source of information. I'm a youth minister, and i'm doing a couple of lessons this week. My audience is made up of christians going into their senior year and those going into their freshman year of college. It is quite shocking to see the numbers. 50% !! So now what? What do we do to remedy the situation? How does someone like me fix this?

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About
Brett Kunkle is the Student Impact Director at Stand to Reason. He is a huge fan of his wife and 4 kids, surfing the Point in Newport Beach, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes, in that order.