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Super Tuesday

With 3 days to go before “Super Tuesday” here is how I see the race playing out. For the Republicans, McCain is the odds on favorite to win. He comes into Tuesday with endorsements from Giuliani and Schwarzenegger, the delegate lead, and momentum. If he is able to win a strong majority of the 22 states that are voting on Tuesday, he could potentially lock up the Republican nomination. The only chance Romney has of beating McCain is if the social conservative/tax-cutting base of the party rallies around Romney which is going to be difficult to do with Huckabee in the race. Huckabee’s support comes from Christian values voters who would most likely support Romney if Huckabee wasn’t running. Since Huckabee does not have a realistic chance of winning, I think he is staying in the race to increase his appeal as a possible running mate for John McCain or to bump up his appeal for a career in radio or tv when the presidential race is over. Look for McCain to come out of Super Tuesday with a big lead in delegates and the momentum to lock up the nomination. For the Democrats, the race is much closer. Clinton is polling ahead of Obama in the big states like New York and California, while Obama is pollling ahead of Clinton in southern and midwest states like Illinois, Missouri, and Georgia. On average, national polls show Clinton with an 8 point lead over Obama. The good news for Obama is that Clinton’s lead has been cut in half since the Jan. 3rd Iowa Caucus and he seems to have the most momentum heading into Tuesday. He also has an influx of cash. In January alone he raised 32 million dollars and is spending money as quick as he can. Look for a lot of Obama ads on television in the next couple of days. For the Democrats, Super Tuesday is less likely to produce a clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. That fight will go on.

Comments

Nice evaluation, Briklyn, and it's nice to have you on the blog roll. I've been voting since the Nixon years (wow, I can't believe I'm that old), and I can't remember a more exciting and significant presidential race. Do you have any sense for which way it could go this year?

Check out Craig Detweiler's recent blog on McCain. Then check out the trailer for Craig's film, Purple State of Mind.

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