“Yes we can” and “Change we can believe in” has been the rallying cry of the Obama campaign from the start. Sen. Obama has inspired and energized millions with his campaign for change and promises to fix a polarized political system and government. He has positioned himself as a different type of politician, one who will put the needs of the country and people above his own political ambition. He has done this with words since he has he relatively little legislative experience.

In life, and in politics, timing is everything. Obama came on to the scene at just the right time when the electorate is ready for change and may be willing to bet on an inspiring yet inexperienced leader. His words have made a difference yet this last week we have been shown that he himself may not live up to his inspiring rhetoric. Late last week, he backtracked on an earlier promise to accept public financing during the general election. Had he accepted public financing like he said he would, Obama would have 84 million dollars to use for the general campaign- the same amount as McCain. Now he will be free to spend however much money he can raise- which will likely be hundreds of millions of dollars. If the elections are decided by the candidate who spends the most money, then Obama will surely be the next president.

continue reading

The campaign for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States should be over Tuesday night after the results of the South Dakota and Montana primaries are tallied. At least it will be if Hillary has any sense. All eyes will be on Hillary to see if she gives a concession speech Tuesday night in New York or if she chooses to continue her campaign all the way to the convention in August. I can imagine that most of the Democratic Party is praying she’ll end her campaign with a gracious speech praising Obama and thanking the hard work of her supporters and staff. The sooner they have a unified party, the sooner they can get busy with the work of taking on McCain.

 If she doesn’t give a concession speech and vows to press on until the convention she will essentially torpedo any chance she has of running for president again. I don’t think that people could endure another Clinton campaign if she continues the next few months in the same fashion of the last few weeks-making excuses for why she isn’t winning and vowing to continue her campaign in spite of what is best for the party.

continue reading

I’ve been trying to figure out the media’s role in the presidential election. Sure, the media’s job is to provide the electorate enough information to make an informed decision when voting but nowadays in our new media age, their role has become more than that. They’ve become much more involved. They influence things because it benefits them to stir the pot to make the race as interesting as possible, even in a year when the race is interesting enough without their help. An interesting race sells more papers and commercials.

For tv especially, the race has been a godsend. The almost weekly primaries have been the only thing new on tv for the last 3 months. Personally, I think that the media has treated the primary contest much like they would a reality TV show. Think of every reality based contest tv show out there…Survivor, The Amazing Race, American Idol, etc. Every episode is the same. In the middle of the contest there is a “twist” thrown in by the show’s producer to even out the competition and make the show more interesting to watch. Obama goes on a primary winning streak and for Hillary it turns out to be a non-elimination round. Huckabee wins a couple of southern primaries and all of the sudden he is the Sanjia of the Republican Party- a candidate everyone knows can’t win the election but keeps in the race because he is entertaining to watch.

continue reading

After Hillary’s comeback win on Tuesday night, it actually looks like a presidential candidate just might be picked in some sort of backroom deal at the nominating convention. I’m not old enough to remember the time when backroom deals were the preferred method presidential candidates were chosen. I always pictured the scene as a bunch of overweight men chomping on cigars in tiny smoke-filled rooms swapping favors and blackmailing each other into the wee hours of the morning. A white cigar smoke signal floating out the back room signaled to the party faithful that their candidate had been chosen and it was time to rally around him.

If the race for democratic nomination continues at the current pace, the nominee will be chosen at the convention by the increasingly important group of super-delegates. The democratic super-delegates are basically the party powerful- current and former elected officials, party leaders, and those appointed by the chairman of the Democratic Party.

As I’ve watched the ascendancy of the Obama candidacy the last few weeks, I’ve been trying to figure out how he did it. I stumbled upon an article written by Michael Barone which I think may just explain how Obama has done the impossible- unseating a Clinton as the frontrunner in the Democratic Party. According to Barone, voters are suffering from the 16 year itch. Pointing to 1976, 1992, and the early signs of 2008, Barone highlights a pattern which tends to happen every 16 years with presidential elections- the country gets sick of the people they’ve put in office and develop “an unusual preference for outside-the-system candidates with less top level experience than voters usually want in a president.” Essentially, Obama is riding the same wave that put Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both governors of small southern states with relatively little experience, into the highest office in the land. It’s slightly poetic that the same force that swept Bill into office is keeping Hillary away from it.

 

continue reading

Have you ever been underwater a second or two too long and your body starts to panic before you have time to think about what is going on? In that moment all you know is that you need air and you will do anything to get it. I get a sense that a similar sense of panic is beginning to permeate throughout the Clinton campaign. In the last week, Clinton has loaned her campaign $5 million dollars, replaced her campaign manager, lost the last 8 state primaries by a wide margin, and had her deputy campaign manager resign. That is a bad week for the candidate nearly everyone thought was a sure bet to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for president just months ago.

 

The Clinton campaign has downplayed the recent losses saying that they were expected. They put everything on the line by publicly announcing that they have to win Texas and Ohio on March 4^th. I think that is evidence of the panic going on throughout the campaign. When months ago you were unbeatable and now you are suddenly behind, things get scary and campaigns can do desperate things, especially when new people are brought on board. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks- if the panic becomes palpable. If it does, that will be the end of her campaign. People don’t vote for candidates that are panicky and desperate plus they tend to do stupid or vicious things. People vote for candidates who are confident and cool. They want to know that they can handle the stress when things aren’t going their way and can show humility when things are.

 

continue reading

Yesterday I reached the point of presidential commercial overdose. It seemed like every other commercial was an ad for a presidential candidate- Thank God for Tivo. I reached a point where I didn’t want to hear another promise of what a candidate is going to do for me when elected. Going by their commercials, I don’t know if there is anything left for the gang to promise me. I’ve heard how they are going to end our reliance on foreign oil, stimulate a depressed economy, cut taxes for the middle class, raise taxes on companies that send jobs overseas, provide universal health insurance, make college affordable, etc., etc., etc.

 

As a Clinton commercial played in the background offering me more promises of what she would do for my vote, I came across this statement from C.S. Lewis in Mere Christianity:

 It is easy to think the State has a lot of different objects-military, political, economic, and what not. But in a way things are much simpler than that. The State exists simply to promote and to protect the ordinary happiness of human beings in this life. A husband and wife chatting over a fire, a couple of friends having a game of darts in a pub, a man reading a book in his own room or digging in his own garden-that is what the State is there for. And unless they are helping to increase and prolong and protect such moments, all the laws, parliaments, armies, courts, police, economics, etc., are simply a waste of time.  

continue reading

With 3 days to go before “Super Tuesday” here is how I see the race playing out. For the Republicans, McCain is the odds on favorite to win. He comes into Tuesday with endorsements from Giuliani and Schwarzenegger, the delegate lead, and momentum. If he is able to win a strong majority of the 22 states that are voting on Tuesday, he could potentially lock up the Republican nomination. The only chance Romney has of beating McCain is if the social conservative/tax-cutting base of the party rallies around Romney which is going to be difficult to do with Huckabee in the race. Huckabee’s support comes from Christian values voters who would most likely support Romney if Huckabee wasn’t running. Since Huckabee does not have a realistic chance of winning, I think he is staying in the race to increase his appeal as a possible running mate for John McCain or to bump up his appeal for a career in radio or tv when the presidential race is over.

continue reading